By: Carrington Caul
#1 Seed (Chicago Bulls) vs #8 Seed Indiana Pacers
The Overview: Indiana fired head coach Jim O’Brien at the end on January and placed assistant coach Frank Vogel as the Interim head coach. Vogel stepped in and lead them to 20-18 record as the head coach and a 37-44 overall record which allowed them to clinching their first playoff berth since the 2006 season.
Meanwhile the Chicago Bulls have the chance to finish the season with the best record currently at 61-20 and the more than likely MVP PG Derrick Rose who is averaging 25.1 PPG, 4.1 RPG, and 7.8 APG who have also completed their first 60 win season since the 97-98 season and also clinched the #1 in the Eastern Conference for the first time since Michael Jordon retired.
The Series: The Bulls finished the season with a 3-1 advantage against the Pacers only losing the last game of the series against the Pacers 115-108 in which MVP leading candidate Derrick Rose scored 42 points with 4 rebounds and 2 assists. Meanwhile 2nd year player Tyler Hansborough finally stepped into his mold and scored 29 points, 12 rebounds and 2 steals.
The Prediction: This isn’t a easy sweep for Chicago but they should finish the series in 5-6 games. the Pacers have a very solid team that is missing one or two pieces but can play very hard every night and never give up. If they get the Hansborough that can have double-doubles every night they will challenge the Bulls which means like 95% of the time Derrick Rose will have to carry this team through the series.
ESPN's very own Andy Katz released the early rankings for next college basketball season, if you want to check out the page directly you can go here
Watching Connecticut celebrate Monday night at Reliant Stadium was yet another reminder that the hottest teams, in the most advantageous matchups -- not the most talented -- are the ones to pick for the national championship on Selection Sunday.
Butler fit the criteria as well, although few could have predicted how the Bulldogs would escape games against Old Dominion and Pitt.
But picking the preseason top 25 is another matter. Projecting next season's top teams so soon after the national championship simply proves a quick snapshot of where teams may end up. Nothing more, nothing less.
We don't know when the coaching carousel will end and we don't know for sure which underclassmen will jump to the NBA draft. The deadline to declare is April 24. The deadline to withdraw is May 8. So you can be assured we will have another one of these shortly thereafter.
Until then, consider this merely a first crack at the top 25 for 2011-12. If nothing else, perhaps it'll provide a glimmer of anticipation as we begin the mourning period after the passing of another college basketball season -- and wait another seven months until the start of the new one.
So without further ado, here are my first rankings. Feel free to let me know where I went wrong (or right?) in the comments section.
1. Kentucky
Even if freshmen Brandon Knight and Terrence Jones leave for the NBA, this Final Four team still returns a bevy of quality players and one of the sport's top recruiting classes in years, led by Michael Gilchrist and Anthony Davis. The Wildcats are now a consistent title contender, and likely will be for as long as John Calipari remains in Lexington.
2. North Carolina
Tyler Zeller and John Henson have decided to return to North Carolina, and now the Tar Heels await word from Harrison Barnes on whether he will stay in school or enter the NBA draft. If all three come back, North Carolina will almost certainly be No. 1 in my next top 25. Kendall Marshall will start the season at the point and will be one of the best in the country. Because of that, expect to see the UNC you saw in the second half of the season, not the first.
3. Ohio State
The Buckeyes will return the best big man in the country, Jared Sullinger (he's adamant about it and I believe him). Aaron Craft is back at the point and William Buford as the sharpshooter. Ohio State is once again the Big Ten's best and there's no reason to believe it won't again contend for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.
4. Texas
Keep in mind, this ranking projects Jordan Hamilton and Tristan Thompson to remain in Austin. If one (or both) leaves, Texas won't stay in this spot. Although there would still be a lot to like about the Longhorns, especially sophomore-to-be Cory Joseph and another elite recruiting class. This is the team to beat in the new 10-team Big 12. If Hamilton and Thompson return, we're talking a legit national-title contender.
5. Connecticut
The Huskies are likely to lose soon-to-be graduate Kemba Walker, but Jeremy Lamb isn't ready for the NBA so the Huskies better hope he doesn't get tempted. Alex Oriakhi returns to anchor the inside and Shabazz Napier is only going to get better. I'm convinced Jim Calhoun returns to coach his defending national champs. And then there is the outside shot that the Class of 2012's top player, Andre Drummond, graduates early and chooses UConn.
6. Duke
The Blue Devils do lose Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler and will most likely see Kyrie Irving declare. But Duke adds a top recruiting class as usual and it's likely going to be the Austin Rivers Show next season in Durham with Doc's son controlling the ball. That backcourt with Rivers, Andre Dawkins and Seth Curry will shoot the lights out. If Irving somehow returns, then the Devils climb. But even if not, it's hard to believe this program will fall far.
7. Syracuse
This team started to figure itself out late in the season, but then faded in the final few minutes against Marquette in the NCAA tournament. But like Louisville (see below), the majority of the team returns at every key position and a stellar recruiting class hits campus. There's no reason to doubt Syracuse will be right in the thick of the Big East title chase from start to finish -- not to mention a Final Four contender.
8. Louisville
The Cardinals taught me a lesson this past season: Don't dismiss the ability to collectively come together under Rick Pitino. Louisville's style of play was disruptive for everyone in the Big East and the team greatly exceeded expectations. Preston Knowles is a big loss, but the core returns and is joined by freshmen Wayne Blackshear and Chane Behanan, among others. This time the Cards won't sneak up on anybody. We already know how good they'll be.
9. Memphis
Whether or not Josh Pastner was seriously sought after for some of these high-profile openings is a matter of debate. But Memphis and Pastner know they are a good match for each other. The Tigers shouldn't see any major defections from a team that won the Conference USA tournament and pushed Arizona to the brink in the Dance. This is how it should be under a new regime: A super recruiting class carries a team into the NCAAs, develops momentum late and then comes back to take another step, joined by another super recruiting class.
10. Arizona
This might be too low for the Wildcats, but this is based on an assumption that Derrick Williams will declare for the draft and be one of the top five picks. If for some reason he returns, then the Wildcats are in my next top five. Williams can affect the game that much. But he wasn't alone last season. Sean Miller had quite a complementary crew and added even more with a productive class to make the Wildcats the team to beat in the new Pac-12.
11. Vanderbilt
The Commodores were a disappointment again in the NCAA tournament and couldn't find a consistent stride in conference play. But if the scoring wings of Jeffery Taylor and John Jenkins are back and Festus Ezeli continues his upward trajectory, then the Dores should be the top challenger to Kentucky in the SEC. Kevin Stallings wasn't tempted to bolt for a potentially more profitable gig in the Big 12 either, which is a plus.
12. Kansas
KU simply doesn't fade away. Ever. So even with the possible departures of Big 12 Player of the Year Marcus Morris, his brother Markieff and Josh Selby, the always-talented Jayhawks get the benefit of the doubt here. Kansas could survive the hit as long as Thomas Robinson sticks around. Bill Self just added Ben McLemore to the recruiting class and the continued development of players like Travis Releford will be enough to keep this program nationally relevant.
13. Wisconsin
The Badgers do lose Jon Leuer, but Wisconsin will have back the top guard in the Big Ten in Jordan Taylor, who proved this past season that he can carry this team on his back (remember the defeat of No. 1 Ohio State?) and can score in bunches. And Mike Bruesewitz should shine in more of a starring role for the Badgers. We learned long ago never to discount a Bo Ryan-coached Wisconsin team in the Big Ten race. And we will not do so this year.
14. Marquette
The Golden Eagles were the Big East's 11th team in the field of 68, but also one of two left standing in the Sweet 16. One of the main reasons Buzz Williams decided against going back to his roots in Big 12 country is that he has a team that can compete for the Big East top five with the majority returning and Jimmy Butler the only major loss.
15. Xavier
Chris Mack was a hot coaching-carousel candidate after leading the Musketeers to another Atlantic 10 title. But he's a Xavier alum and a Cincinnati guy through and through. He'll again be with the top player in the league in Tu Holloway and the Musketeers return enough to make one believe they will once again take the A-10.
16. Michigan
Darius Morris is flirting with the NBA draft, but if he comes back and joins Tim Hardaway Jr., the Wolverines will have one of the top teams in the Big Ten. Michigan finished strong and was within one possession of beating Duke after destroying Tennessee in the NCAA tournament. This Michigan team was unselfish and learned to play under John Beilein. Look for more of the same in 2011-12.
17. UCLA
The Bruins lost Tyler Honeycutt to the NBA draft, but Malcolm Lee is likely to return after testing the waters. Big man Josh Smith is back and he'll have help inside with North Carolina transfers David and Travis Wear eligible to give Smith more room to operate. The Wear twins can do the dirty work for Smith and allow him more freedom to score. There's little doubt UCLA will compete for the Pac-12 title.
18. Butler
The Bulldogs won't have Matt Howard on the roster and lose Shawn Vanzant, as well. And if Shelvin Mack jumps to the NBA, the team will be gutted a bit. But Brad Stevens has worked wonders the past four years and there's no reason to doubt him now. If Mack decides to return, this team will have to be in the top 20 again -- especially with the rise of soph-to-be Khyle Marshall.
19. Pittsburgh
The Panthers are in a cycle in which they lose three seniors, but then add a strong recruiting class. Ashton Gibbs will likely come to his senses and return rather than stay in the NBA draft. If he does, then Pitt retains one of the more experienced guards in the country and will be just fine. The rest of the crew is more than serviceable and Jamie Dixon's team is always right there in the Big East race.
20. Alabama
The run to the NIT title game was no fluke. Alabama finished 12-4 in conference play and has the core of its team back with Tony Mitchell leading the charge for coach Anthony Grant. Arkansas brings in a top recruiting class and Mike Anderson will have the Hogs in the mix, but the SEC West has to run through Tuscaloosa for the foreseeable future.
21. Texas A&M
The Aggies are never a sexy pick in the preseason, but Mark Turgeon has the program on solid footing as there is always another player ready to take over the lead role. Khris Middleton will continue to be a rising star in the Big 12 and Texas A&M will continue to be a tough out. The additions of Jamal Branch and Elston Turner certainly won't hurt the cause.
22. Cincinnati
Let's not forget the Bearcats quietly put together 26 wins this past season and now will return their top four scorers from a team that lost to the eventual national champion in the NCAA tournament. Add in Mick Cronin's top-flight recruiting class, led by Shaquille Thomas, and Cincy has the goods to compete for a top-four spot in the Big East.
23. Florida
The Gators have to drop a bit with the losses of Chandler Parsons, Alex Tyus and Vernon Macklin. Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker are back to give UF an experienced backcourt and the additions of freshman Bradley Beal and transfer Mike Rosario will make it one of the top groups in the country. The return of Patric Young means the Gators will have a talented but young front line. Florida will increasingly get better during the season and challenge for second in the SEC East.
24. George Mason
VCU was a senior-laden crew that got hot late in the season, but that could've easily been the Patriots -- and might be next season. George Mason does lose one key senior in Cam Long, but returns Ryan Pearson and a host of others who can keep GMU atop the Colonial and ahead of CAA upstarts like Drexel. Jim Larranaga's crew will certainly be one to watch throughout the season.
25. Missouri
The hire of Frank Haith isn't popular among the fan base, but don't forget the new coach inherits a senior-laden team from Mike Anderson. Assuming the players stay -- Kim English and Laurence Bowers are testing the waters -- the Tigers should be a tournament team in his first season. The bigger chore for Haith comes this summer in trying to secure longer-term commitments for a slew of scholarships opening up in 2012.
Five more to keep an eye on
Gonzaga
The Zags will have some company in competing for the WCC title with BYU. But the Cougs will take a step back without Jimmer Fredette and Saint Mary's won't be the same without Mickey McConnell. Gonzaga loses Steven Gray but has a new WCC star in Marquise Carter and will once again hover right around the top 25.
Florida State
The Seminoles probably will lose Chris Singleton and there's no questioning his overall talent. But surprisingly, the Noles were able to make the Sweet 16 without Singleton being a major factor. Leonard Hamilton always has his team among the best defensive groups in the country and there's still plenty of talent in Tallahassee. Don't count out FSU.
Wichita State
Gregg Marshall decided against leaving the Shockers because Wichita State continued to pay him at market value and he knows he has a team that could do some damage if it gets into the NCAA tournament. Wichita won the NIT and returns nearly every key player. The Shockers will be the pick to win the Missouri Valley and a team no big boy will want to play.
California
Mike Montgomery did a stellar job with the Bears in a transition season, even after losing a top recruit in Gary Franklin, who decided to transfer midseason. Freshman Allen Crabbe turned out to be a star and the majority of the surprising team returns. The Bears should be a Pac-12 contender from the outset.
New Mexico
The Mountain West will go through a transition period as San Diego State is gutted by graduation and the likely departure of Kawhi Leonard, UNLV loses senior leadership and coach Lon Kruger and BYU heads off to the West Coast Conference. But the Lobos only lose point Dairese Gary and have a solid post in Drew Gordon and a rising MWC star in Kendall Williams. Steve Alford stayed put because he knows he has a squad ready to win a league title.
Also considered: Temple, Harvard, Purdue, West Virginia, Washington, Villanova
Andy Katz is a senior writer for ESPN.com.
Follow Andy Katz on Twitter: @ESPNAndyKatz
By:Carrington Caul
1)Carolina Panthers (2-14)
Cam Newton (QB, Auburn)
It’s hard for me not to put Alabama’s DT Marcell Dareus right here, but we need to look at the facts right now. Fact number one: John Fox is the type of coach that believes that you build your team around your defense, and you have a solid quarterback to manage the offense. The game has changed and we are in a League where it’s QB driven and you have to be more balanced with the ability to attack in the air, rather than being conservative.
Fact number 2: Cam Newton has a lot of upsides, he has a strong arm, he is very athletic, and he has the ability to move outside the pocket and make plays with his feet. He’s a project player than can either be one of the biggest busts or biggest prizes. He has too much potential and skill set for you to pass up at the number one offense. Fact number three: the coaches have already stated they want to make Carolina an east coast version of San Diego Chargers seeing how their head coach and offensive coordinator is both from the Chargers they want somebody that can make the throws and bring a passing game like Phillip Rivers and that person right now is Cameron Newton.
2)Denver Broncos (4-12)
Marcell Dareus (DT, Alabama)
In my opinion, Dareus to me is the best player in the draft. He also is the safest pick along with Patrick Peterson. The Broncos defense which never made a serious impact in the past season, needs some work. Darius’ ability to rush the passer and stop the run, along with the elite players on defense can turn this team around.It also might be a possibility that the Broncos could go with Gabbert. John Fox is the new head coach in Denver this season and the last time Fox had the number two pick of the draft he grabbed defensive lineman Julius Peppers.
3)Buffalo Bills (4-12)
Blaine Gabbert (QB, Missouri)
The Bills definitely love QB Cam Newton, DT Marcell Dareus, CB Patrick Peterson, but they have to find an answer on the offensive side at the quarterback position and that answer right now is Blain Gabbert. They would love for Cam Newton to fall to them at number three, but unless they are trading up to get in the first spot, Newton won’t be there at the third pick and the next best thing is Blain Gabbert.The positives about Gabbert are: he will be able to become a solid player in the future, probably needing grooming to get him ready for that position. He has the best footwork between the top two quarterbacks, and more NFL ready than Newton. However the thing that holds Gabbert back is his ceiling is a lot lower than Newton’s. Gabbert can be a pro-bowl QB, with 3,500-4,000 yard seasons if he is in the right offense with the right weapons. But it’s not Buffalo.
4)Cincinnati Bengals (4-12)
Da’Quan Bowers (DE-Clemson)
I’m expecting the Bengals to trade up to possibly draft either Newton or Gabbert. It is possible that they will trade back some picks to get Ryan Mallet in the later 1st round, as pick up some extra picks to help them continue to build the program. Bowers stock has dropped a little after pushing back workout dates further and further. In turn, causing people to question if his knee is really 100% , and will he be able to produce on the next level. His pro day didn’t help with reports stating he looked winded and not his usual explosiveness that allowed him to lead the nation in sacks (15.5) in 2010. But even with all the questions, teams will do their research to make sure his knee is really ok. If everything goes the way it’s supposed to I can’t see Bowers dropping out of the top-10.
5)Arizona Cardinals (5-11)
Von Miller (LB, Texas A&M)
The Cardinals need a play maker on the defensive side of the ball that can make an impact and Miller is that player. He can play in a 4-3 or 3-4, he has a high football IQ, has great instincts and is also a natural playmaker. The Cardinals might also look to grab Peterson with this pick but I think Miller will get the selection.
6)Cleveland Browns (5-11)
A.J. Green (WR, Georgia)
Colt McCoy started and played in 8 games this season. He had a shaky season plagued by injuries and was also overwhelmed at the fast paced NFL level. But he showed glimpses that he could be the franchise QB for this organization but to do that he will need a target. That’s where Green comes in. He’s a solid player that has a big body that can take some hits. Green also is a great route runner and natural catcher with his hands. McCoy, Green, and Hills are a good offense to build around.
7)San Francisco 49’ers (6-10)
Patrick Peterson (CB, LSU)
Peterson is the best player in the whole draft; he’s also the safest pick of the draft so it’s kind of hard to imagine him sliding down to 7th especially when every team in the top 10 can use him. Peterson is a freak of nature at 6’0, 219LBS and runs a 4.34, his hands are large, and he’s quick with great instincts and a shut down type of corner. The reason why Peterson’s stock will drop is because he stated he doesn’t want to return Kickoffs in the NFL. Mainly wanting to be just a CB but occasionally doing Punt Returns a lot of teams were looking at him for his dual threat. Peterson will automatically start when he comes in and will make the 49’ers defense a lot better and with Patrick Willis this could be a great defense in no time.
8)Tennessee Titans (6-10)
Nick Fairley (DT, Auburn)
The Titans at the 8th spot are a perfect example of drafting the best player available. They really need a defensive lineman but that’s not their top 3 needs (QB, LG, ILB) but with Fairley sitting here at the 8th spot you are getting the best person available and your also filling a need. There will be a lot of QB’s, O-Line, and LB’s in the later rounds so why not go for the best player. At the beginning of this offseason 96% of all mock drafts had Fairley as the Top-3 pick. Once Andrew Luck decided he wasn’t entering the draft 98% of all mock drafts had Fairley as the overall top pick. But his stock dropped after a shaky combine performance and also a lot of questions surrounding a player that had only one breakout year.
Fairley will instantly bring a solid run stop and pass rusher presence to the middle of this defensive line. As long as they fill some other needs on the defensive side this could be a great defense next season.
9)Dallas Cowboys (6-10)
J.J. Watt (DE, Wisconsin)
Watt is a great relentless pass rusher that will play till the end of the whistle. He will be spectacular as a DE in a 3-4 defense as a 5 technique; Watt also brings vocal leadership with strong hands and good footwork. At 6’5 290LBS having Watt at DE and Sean Lee at LB this could be a greedy fast paced defense that can get in the backfield in a hurry.
10)Washington Redskins (6-10)
Robert Quinn (DE, UNC)
The Redskins will lose Andre Carter in the offseason and if they didn’t he’s 32 years old. In the NFC East you are looking at probably the best conference for D-linemen; New York Giants (Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck, Barry Cofield, Jason Pierre-Paul) Dallas Cowboys (DeMarcus Spears, Jay Ratliff, Stephen Bowen) Philadelphia Eagles (Brandon Graham, Mike Patterson, Trent Cole) the Redskins have no D Line depth like the rest of the conference. Quinn will come in and bring that fast pass rush, also able to stop the run on the edges. He will become an instant impact on a struggling Redskins defense.
11)Houston Texans (6-10)
Aldon Smith (DE, Missouri)
Smith is a player that can play either 3-4 or 4-3 also has the ability to line up in the LB position if he has to. He is an excellent pass rusher with tremendous talent that the Texans will need if they want to compete for the conference title. Smith also has great footwork and quick hands that he uses well to get himself in the backfield.
12)Minnesota Vikings (6-10)
Cameron Jordan (DE, California)
Jordan is another pass rusher that does what he needs to do to get himself in the backfield. A solid player that you can build a defensive line around, very coachable and has a high football IQ.
13)Detroit Lions (6-10)
Prince Amukamara (CB, Nebraska)
Amukamara is a greedy, savvy, ball hawk CB, and that is exactly what the Lions need on their struggling defense. He can cover in any type of package and makes great plays off of instincts and hardly ever gets beat on the deep ball. He is a selfless player that can be a leader on the defense that will need leadership.
14)St. Louis Rams (7-9)
Julio Jones (WR, Alabama)
Julio Jones is a scary player, 6’3, 220LBS and ran a 4.39 at the combine with a fractured foot that he didn’t even know was fractured. Jones is a great route runner and can make the perfect sticks in his footwork. Arguably the best receiver in this year’s draft, his stock dropped for the reason that a lot of times he catches off his body more than his hands and also does double catches. If he can work on that, Julio Jones and Sam Bradford can be a serious combination for years to come.
15)Miami Dolphins (7-9)
Mark Ingram (RB, Alabama)
The Dolphins not only get the best RB in the draft at 15, but they also get their biggest need in the first round. Ingram is a small, powerful, and fast player with the ability to power himself through defenders or cut back and make them miss. It also seems like the perfect fit for Ingram offensive wise. He will remind a lot of fans of a stronger version of Ricky Williams when he was in his prime.
16)Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8)
Ryan Kerrigan (DE, Purdue)
Kerrigan is a workhorse-type pass rusher whose game is compared to Aaron Kampman, who would line up at the other end spot. He has good footwork and good hand movements that can get him in the backfield to touch the QB. He’s a coachable player with tremendous upside; also a good fit for what the Jaguars are trying to do defensively.
